Argentina has one of the lowest financing needs of the world's current account surplus, low debt / GDP ratio, having left the default MM 53.000 collects about stocks, it is not obvious that grows in 2011 below 6 / 7%.
In this context, wages again experience a real and nominal increase in 2010, according to INDEC, the increase was 26% annually in December. While there was nominal growth rates in real terms the wage improvement is "Dutch" because the wage index adjusted by the CPI for the private sector, earnings in 2010 increased 2.5%. This explains why consumption growth in recent years, more support in the recovery of employment, wage distortions in apparent. Meritorious looks, that private sector employees registered their purchasing power improved 16% over 2001, while leaving the biggest default in world history.
The massive devaluation of 2002, revenue was reduced to 1 / 3 of what had been the end of 2001, while unemployment and underemployment combined, exceeded 40% of the working population. Despite the recovery of wages, corporate profit levels were highest during the era of "K", that during the term of the convertibility plan. However
talking about salaries, the most outstanding balance has been the public sector, where wages have risen less than inflation in the calculations of the "private consulting." In this sector, the official strategy was moderate wage increases, to allocate resources to hiring new staff. Remember the relentless drain of the nineties that established "culture of unemployed, had decimated the public, in order to sustain a convertible model, which then left us: first" maxi newsstand and taxi driver "and then the" piquetero full time "but" the professional pickers. " Since 2007, 250,000 jobs created in the public sector, while dramatically reducing the work plans and the like.
With a view to the elections, it seems that 2012 will be a better year to meet the necessary adjustments that requires competitiveness. There are no risks, no matter who wins, competition remains healthy, there are problems of scale. Although we travel a good space of salary competitiveness relative to other countries like Brazil, where industrial wages in dollars increased by 226% since 2000.
is true that the union wage dynamics is difficult to contain, but remember that occurs during a Peronist government that could decide the union moderation failed Alfonsin and de la Rua.
fears that projects the 2010 wage experience, do not take into account the increased price of meat (95%), which dragged the rest of the food and mating to a 17% annual inflation, climbed to 22% annualized, according to the average of private consultants, "both direct and indirect influence. This situation was partly shot in wage demands, but it is unrealistic to speculate that at this stage espiralizando continue without interruption. Neither the prices of commodities will rise to 2010-rates in Argentina aspect rarely mentioned when talking about inflation that affects almost all the emerging world. Never could the price of meat to add back 5 percentage points to inflation, and perhaps on the contrary, this time getting help that component prices in 2011. Since
Core inflation, which rescues the underlying trends in inflation, the consensus of the consultants had a monthly increase of 1.4% in January-18% annualized, and in the two previous months below average rose for the second half of 2010, we can see a sort of cyclical stabilization of inflation. I remain optimistic, I believe that 2011 will surprise those who expect to identify new vulnerabilities intractable.
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