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Argentina, one shelter

... We want to tell us when shall these things which will signal your return and the end of the world? ... You will hear that there are wars here and there, but do not panic, as well has to happen, but however, still not the end ... (Gospel of St. Matthew Cap.24, verse 2-6) The Bible.



These days, according to the best seller of all time, we should be prepared to hear a succession of negative events. And we're waking up every day listening, learning from journalists-turned- experts on tsunamis, earthquakes, nuclear power, arctic cold, scarce food, polluted water, in short, all specialists boast, but they could not predict, wars or disasters, famine and destruction we are seeing.
In economics we say that the hikes in food prices are leaving the horizon dramatically decrease life expectancy. In countries with less economic development, where most of the human race, are suffering unimaginable hardship to a resident of the City of Buenos Aires.
The crisis which occurred with an epicenter in the U.S., has left millions of people unemployed, and has not yet produced the required adjustment by the IMF and the ECB in Europe.
conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, they take innocent lives that do not even know because they are at war.
And if all this were not enough, Asia is touched by the disaster in Japan, where he developed and wealthy country today, millions of people begin to fear for the lack of food and drinking water contaminated by radiation.
This increased economic uncertainty, there are few places on earth where to go in search of fresh air for investors.
Those who think in the abstract, want to cling to a probable developed economic recovery that was underway in early 2011, but now this hypothesis is being challenged and diminished their chances in just a few weeks.
Risk Japan, $ 100 oil, rising food, the situation of Arab countries on the edge, makes me think that these are "the beginning of birth pangs"
At the same time, thanks God, in Argentina we are witnessing a boom in consumption, strong GDP growth and rising investment levels. Inflation exists, but is stabilized at the same levels from a year ago. The apparently weak Argentine model, is dodging all the odds were fearful that countries like the U.S. ever. UU., Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Japan, Libya and Egypt. Countries that are now entangled.
In a world that trembles, far from war zones, with abundant water and food and, paradoxically leaving the biggest default in world history a country rises. Argentina reaching a presidential election, more dynamic than ever, with stable inflation, which does not unduly affect competitiveness, and also allowed it to be generating the highest rate of investment to GDP ratio.
"Argentina, a miracle of God, a haven amid the global storm "

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Cambalache of Argentina grows

Penalties private consultants, were seen coming.

(See interview on Youtube)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpyIMbgSx6Y
few months ago, no consultant was present at the call of INDEC to discuss methodologies and technical aspects. No one believes that the CPI, up from 0.7% monthly and 10%, is infallible and unquestionable. But neither has been strong advocacy of increased near- twice -throwing consultants, supported simply on estimates. No consultant can survey interviewers domestic prices three- although most pollsters do not even have - is not serious. That
disaggregated level distortions are observed in different areas, gives no support to speak of inflation is the "little monkey" as if households do not pay electricity, gas, AySA, Internet, cable, phone, transportation, such a manifestation of "amateurism statistical" looks unseemly. And it will be four years since I settle "the problem of INDEC. No doubt there are discrepancies and distortions in official price indices, but the fears were moved to "all the statistics, when we all know that there are huge differences in terms of empirical relevance, macroeconomic and social development.
In terms of indicators of activity, the underestimation of inflation tends to overestimate the growth in just 1 percentage point (most analysts claim blocks). other words, instead of growing 9.2%, more daring economist said that the GDP grew 8.2% in 2010. I seen outrageous bias consultants, providing a higher rate of GDP growth that the INDEC, arguing that the agency overstated the previous year.
private alternative measurements of the basket are not solid, do not even consider the political-geographical level - and even if they were indisputable, the state poverty rates (23%) or poverty (8 %) - most antagonistic critics - which doubled the official statistics (12% and 3% respectively) are lower than those achieved in the best time of nineties (when none of these consultants is concerned by "poverty and destitution.") Perhaps, the least professional consultants is to take some regions and project them as if they were federal data; or omit a creative aspect, as the lower the unemployment, the income of households increases by higher family contributions. A detail.
But most rugged is the defense for the discrepancies in the calculation of public debt, knowing that there are millions of dollars at stake. Again, the consultants are being formed in the lawyers defending the security holders, as it were (2002-2005), when implored not ask "a remission of debt." Perhaps they are right, but "looks bad" defending the adjustment rate of those who bet on inflation, speculating against the country. The defense of the mutineers looks like one to whom vizcacha old spit roast. It argues that the understatement of the CPI carries with it a decline in debt, and as a result should add about $ 33,000 million s more to their holders. If they are successful have to generate a claim, and the country to increase its debt by $ s 33,000 million.
installed with all the doubts about the representativeness of the official price measurement since 2006, private consulting firms have failed to deploy, through a partnership effort creative - imaginative and professional alternative to cases worth defending. Instead doubts have been exported to all over the world a proliferation over recent years alternative estimates, in a sort of "guessing price statistics"
With his militant antipathy to the ruling, the consultants woo customers, although their strategies did not act out "intelligence" and shall not corporate dividends. Not even give it a political tactic for the opposition in a key year, have not tested a single axiomatic solution to bring down the official arguments.
Ah! "The basic problem, the rise in general price level and its impact on the population, believe me," I give a damn "

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The output emphatic "V" of the crisis 2009 - 2010 high economic growth - is one of the most active officers. The cumulative growth of GDP, and over 70% in the period 2003-2010.

Argentina has one of the lowest financing needs of the world's current account surplus, low debt / GDP ratio, having left the default MM 53.000 collects about stocks, it is not obvious that grows in 2011 below 6 / 7%.
In this context, wages again experience a real and nominal increase in 2010, according to INDEC, the increase was 26% annually in December. While there was nominal growth rates in real terms the wage improvement is "Dutch" because the wage index adjusted by the CPI for the private sector, earnings in 2010 increased 2.5%. This explains why consumption growth in recent years, more support in the recovery of employment, wage distortions in apparent. Meritorious looks, that private sector employees registered their purchasing power improved 16% over 2001, while leaving the biggest default in world history.
The massive devaluation of 2002, revenue was reduced to 1 / 3 of what had been the end of 2001, while unemployment and underemployment combined, exceeded 40% of the working population. Despite the recovery of wages, corporate profit levels were highest during the era of "K", that during the term of the convertibility plan. However
talking about salaries, the most outstanding balance has been the public sector, where wages have risen less than inflation in the calculations of the "private consulting." In this sector, the official strategy was moderate wage increases, to allocate resources to hiring new staff. Remember the relentless drain of the nineties that established "culture of unemployed, had decimated the public, in order to sustain a convertible model, which then left us: first" maxi newsstand and taxi driver "and then the" piquetero full time "but" the professional pickers. " Since 2007, 250,000 jobs created in the public sector, while dramatically reducing the work plans and the like.
With a view to the elections, it seems that 2012 will be a better year to meet the necessary adjustments that requires competitiveness. There are no risks, no matter who wins, competition remains healthy, there are problems of scale. Although we travel a good space of salary competitiveness relative to other countries like Brazil, where industrial wages in dollars increased by 226% since 2000.
is true that the union wage dynamics is difficult to contain, but remember that occurs during a Peronist government that could decide the union moderation failed Alfonsin and de la Rua.
fears that projects the 2010 wage experience, do not take into account the increased price of meat (95%), which dragged the rest of the food and mating to a 17% annual inflation, climbed to 22% annualized, according to the average of private consultants, "both direct and indirect influence. This situation was partly shot in wage demands, but it is unrealistic to speculate that at this stage espiralizando continue without interruption. Neither the prices of commodities will rise to 2010-rates in Argentina aspect rarely mentioned when talking about inflation that affects almost all the emerging world. Never could the price of meat to add back 5 percentage points to inflation, and perhaps on the contrary, this time getting help that component prices in 2011. Since
Core inflation, which rescues the underlying trends in inflation, the consensus of the consultants had a monthly increase of 1.4% in January-18% annualized, and in the two previous months below average rose for the second half of 2010, we can see a sort of cyclical stabilization of inflation. I remain optimistic, I believe that 2011 will surprise those who expect to identify new vulnerabilities intractable.