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the economy six months from the elections

Argentina enters the home stretch of the last two quarters prior to presidential elections, showing a ruling that propels a candidate Cristina Kirchner, with chances to win in October, in the first round. "Cristina" tops all the polls, with a booming economy and low unemployment, is in this context, precisely because it leads the voting intentions, it makes sense to stay the course of public policy, exerting political convictions consistency and an eventual electoral success.
sectors Since always, we request that Argentina implement a stabilization plan that goes in the opposite of the rest of the world, a world that has implemented expansionary policies even in the face of rising inflationary pressures.
Obviously there will be no rate stabilization plans of the IMF, because it is not remotely in the mind and the spirit of political leadership. Moreover, inflation shows signs of having been stabilized for 14 months on 20% annually, according to private consultants.
The ruling means that a steady 20% inflation is not good, but is not affecting the growth, consumption, investment or employment. Cristina
know whereas inflation does not accelerate, but not to raise interest rates or cut spending groups, for any reason. To try to avoid accelerating inflation, the government maintains rates and stable exchange rate, while defending prices through controls and moderates the expansion of aggregate spending, having increased the expansion from the global crisis of 2009.
Starting a measurement in the second quarter of 2009, when the economy hit floor post crisis, the GDP has been 21 consecutive months of strong growth, at an annualized rate of about 9.2% average per quarter. Collect and growth of no less than 19% in 21 months, bringing the GDP and 12% are located above the previous peak global crisis, during the third quarter of 2008. Private consumption grew at a record annual rate of no less than 20% in the last quarter of 2010, is relatively low unemployment levels (urban unemployment = 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010) and while inflation is high, society will tolerate without affecting the public image of government.
is necessary to understand that a high inflation rate by international standards, and the monetary approach, does not appear as the main problem afflicting society as serious as unemployment and slowing economic activity. While polls mark the Inflation is the fourth concern of society, we must assume that the government has understood what the priorities of the people. As I always say, you can analyze and classify a governance without taking on the basis of its logic and particular interests.

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Argentina: How is today?

Argentina's debt in 1975 amounted to 7,875 million dollars. Thereafter, and inversely proportional to the extent that the debt was growing, Argentina's economy declined in pace and quality.

just published the facts, and considerations beyond or sophisticated predictions, the numbers look good and are important, this leviathan that hit the life of the nation for the past 35 years, seems to be dominated.
statistics are reported debt in 2010, which reached 164 billion dollars (u $ s 1 = $ 4). The titles were no longer in default after the new exchange, but the new debt issues, the CER adjustment, the capitalization of interest and other translations, finally whitewashed the reality of a vague debt at about 17 billion dollars. Despite the nominal increase, the growth of Argentina's economy, stable exchange rate favored the proportions to come down the debt / GDP ratio of 48.8% in 2009 to 45.8% in 2010.
These foundations are appropriate and consistent with the strategy of debt reduction, and the big difference is identified by analyzing the composition of the debt. If the debt is discounted titles fraction in the hands of government-intrasector groups (46.8% of total general), the public debt burden is reduced to only 24.4% of GDP. The private sector accounts for 38.5% of the public debt of $ 63.314 million - which represent 17.5% of GDP. The bulk of the debt, 46.8%, are debts of state agencies (which now see that once interest appreciated banks and foreign bondholders.) Finally 10.8% are bilateral debts and loans from multilateral lending agencies, and 3.8% are debts that have arrears, eligible for renegotiation in the context of the "Paris Club" - in the process of negotiation final-dollars 6.268 million -.
Interestingly, the currency mix of nomination, although most of the debt (46%) is entitled in dollars (that have been devalued), there is a balance, since (41%) is expressed in pesos . While computing the total debt to the amount still outstanding in default since 2001 (when 100% unlikely nominal), it would reach U.S. $ 175.549 million, which would imply a reduction of 1,379 million dollars since December 31, 2009, when it stood at 176.927 million dollars.
Finally, excel filed maturity profile of debt, principal maturities for the next década-2011/2020- average, account for less than 7,000 million dollars a year, while the average interest payment dates are 3,800 million dollars annually.
regard to the situation, in 2011 the public sector will be facing payments of $ 18,500 million. The government has a "cushion" Financial generated in 2010, close to 4,600 million dollars. If we consider carefully on financial assistance to the provinces, close to 2,800 million-that is double that recorded in 2009 - and the national public sector deficit reached 2,000 million (-0.45% of GDP), the government's financing needs would be covered with intra public sector financing, leaving the first time without arguments to those who hold the potential default scenario, every year since 2007.
The change in funding strategy for the public sector ensures the quasi-automatic rollover of securities, and use of funds from the Central Bank (advances transitory earnings and reserves to pay debt), while ensuring that financial requirements are covered by the public sector itself, rather than relying on any bonds makers and private banks.
Since the beginning of the restructuring of debt, Argentina is going a route paved with antipathy, in which progress is presented thousands of difficulties and hundreds of opponents. From this perspective, looking at the inheritance it receives the next government, we could say that the efforts of all these years has not been in vain.

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Argentina, one shelter

... We want to tell us when shall these things which will signal your return and the end of the world? ... You will hear that there are wars here and there, but do not panic, as well has to happen, but however, still not the end ... (Gospel of St. Matthew Cap.24, verse 2-6) The Bible.



These days, according to the best seller of all time, we should be prepared to hear a succession of negative events. And we're waking up every day listening, learning from journalists-turned- experts on tsunamis, earthquakes, nuclear power, arctic cold, scarce food, polluted water, in short, all specialists boast, but they could not predict, wars or disasters, famine and destruction we are seeing.
In economics we say that the hikes in food prices are leaving the horizon dramatically decrease life expectancy. In countries with less economic development, where most of the human race, are suffering unimaginable hardship to a resident of the City of Buenos Aires.
The crisis which occurred with an epicenter in the U.S., has left millions of people unemployed, and has not yet produced the required adjustment by the IMF and the ECB in Europe.
conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, they take innocent lives that do not even know because they are at war.
And if all this were not enough, Asia is touched by the disaster in Japan, where he developed and wealthy country today, millions of people begin to fear for the lack of food and drinking water contaminated by radiation.
This increased economic uncertainty, there are few places on earth where to go in search of fresh air for investors.
Those who think in the abstract, want to cling to a probable developed economic recovery that was underway in early 2011, but now this hypothesis is being challenged and diminished their chances in just a few weeks.
Risk Japan, $ 100 oil, rising food, the situation of Arab countries on the edge, makes me think that these are "the beginning of birth pangs"
At the same time, thanks God, in Argentina we are witnessing a boom in consumption, strong GDP growth and rising investment levels. Inflation exists, but is stabilized at the same levels from a year ago. The apparently weak Argentine model, is dodging all the odds were fearful that countries like the U.S. ever. UU., Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Japan, Libya and Egypt. Countries that are now entangled.
In a world that trembles, far from war zones, with abundant water and food and, paradoxically leaving the biggest default in world history a country rises. Argentina reaching a presidential election, more dynamic than ever, with stable inflation, which does not unduly affect competitiveness, and also allowed it to be generating the highest rate of investment to GDP ratio.
"Argentina, a miracle of God, a haven amid the global storm "

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Cambalache of Argentina grows

Penalties private consultants, were seen coming.

(See interview on Youtube)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpyIMbgSx6Y
few months ago, no consultant was present at the call of INDEC to discuss methodologies and technical aspects. No one believes that the CPI, up from 0.7% monthly and 10%, is infallible and unquestionable. But neither has been strong advocacy of increased near- twice -throwing consultants, supported simply on estimates. No consultant can survey interviewers domestic prices three- although most pollsters do not even have - is not serious. That
disaggregated level distortions are observed in different areas, gives no support to speak of inflation is the "little monkey" as if households do not pay electricity, gas, AySA, Internet, cable, phone, transportation, such a manifestation of "amateurism statistical" looks unseemly. And it will be four years since I settle "the problem of INDEC. No doubt there are discrepancies and distortions in official price indices, but the fears were moved to "all the statistics, when we all know that there are huge differences in terms of empirical relevance, macroeconomic and social development.
In terms of indicators of activity, the underestimation of inflation tends to overestimate the growth in just 1 percentage point (most analysts claim blocks). other words, instead of growing 9.2%, more daring economist said that the GDP grew 8.2% in 2010. I seen outrageous bias consultants, providing a higher rate of GDP growth that the INDEC, arguing that the agency overstated the previous year.
private alternative measurements of the basket are not solid, do not even consider the political-geographical level - and even if they were indisputable, the state poverty rates (23%) or poverty (8 %) - most antagonistic critics - which doubled the official statistics (12% and 3% respectively) are lower than those achieved in the best time of nineties (when none of these consultants is concerned by "poverty and destitution.") Perhaps, the least professional consultants is to take some regions and project them as if they were federal data; or omit a creative aspect, as the lower the unemployment, the income of households increases by higher family contributions. A detail.
But most rugged is the defense for the discrepancies in the calculation of public debt, knowing that there are millions of dollars at stake. Again, the consultants are being formed in the lawyers defending the security holders, as it were (2002-2005), when implored not ask "a remission of debt." Perhaps they are right, but "looks bad" defending the adjustment rate of those who bet on inflation, speculating against the country. The defense of the mutineers looks like one to whom vizcacha old spit roast. It argues that the understatement of the CPI carries with it a decline in debt, and as a result should add about $ 33,000 million s more to their holders. If they are successful have to generate a claim, and the country to increase its debt by $ s 33,000 million.
installed with all the doubts about the representativeness of the official price measurement since 2006, private consulting firms have failed to deploy, through a partnership effort creative - imaginative and professional alternative to cases worth defending. Instead doubts have been exported to all over the world a proliferation over recent years alternative estimates, in a sort of "guessing price statistics"
With his militant antipathy to the ruling, the consultants woo customers, although their strategies did not act out "intelligence" and shall not corporate dividends. Not even give it a political tactic for the opposition in a key year, have not tested a single axiomatic solution to bring down the official arguments.
Ah! "The basic problem, the rise in general price level and its impact on the population, believe me," I give a damn "